Evaluation and comparison of CMIP6 models and MERRA-2 reanalysis AOD against Satellite observations from 2000 to 2014 over China     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2022,13(2):101325

Rapid industrialization and urbanization along with a growing population are contributing significantly to air pollution in China. Evaluation of long-term aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from models and reanalysis, can greatly promote understanding of spatiotemporal variations in air pollution in China. To do this, AOD (550 nm) values from 2000 to 2014 were obtained from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CIMP6), the second version of Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research, and Applications (MERRA-2), and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; flying on the Terra satellite) combined Dark Target and Deep Blue (DTB) aerosol product. We used the Terra-MODIS DTB AOD (hereafter MODIS DTB AOD) as a standard to evaluate CMIP6 Ensemble AOD (hereafter CMIP6 AOD) and MERRA-2 reanalysis AOD (hereafter MERRA-2 AOD). Results show better correlations and smaller errors between MERRA-2 and MODIS DTB AOD, than between CMIP6 and MODIS DTB AOD, in most regions of China, at both annual and seasonal scales. However, significant under- and over-estimations in the MERRA-2 and CMIP6 AOD were also observed relative to MODIS DTB AOD. The long-term (2000–2014) MODIS DTB AOD distributions show the highest AOD over the North China Plain (0.71) followed by Central China (0.69), Yangtse River Delta (0.67), Sichuan Basin (0.64), and Pearl River Delta (0.54) regions. The lowest AOD values were recorded over the Tibetan Plateau (0.13 ± 0.01) followed by Qinghai (0.19 ± 0.03) and the Gobi Desert (0.21 ± 0.03). Large amounts of sand and dust particles emitted from natural sources (the Taklamakan and Gobi Deserts) may result in higher AOD in spring compared to summer, autumn, and winter. Trends were also calculated for 2000–2005, for 2006–2010 (when China introduced strict air pollution control policies during the 11th Five Year Plan or FYP), and for 2011–2014 (during the 12th FYP). An increasing trend in MODIS DTB AOD was observed throughout the country during 2000–2014. The uncontrolled industrialization, urbanization, and rapid economic development that mostly occurred from 2000 to 2005 probably contributed to the overall increase in AOD. Finally, China's air pollution control policies helped to reduce AOD in most regions of the country; this was more evident during the 12th FYP period (2011–2014) than during the 11th FYP period (2006–2010). Therefore this study strongly advises the authority to retain or extend these policies in the future for improving air quality.  相似文献   

Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models     

Ayugi  Brian  Shilenje  Zablon Weku  Babaousmail  Hassen  Lim Kam Sian  Kenny T. C.  Mumo  Richard  Dike  Victor Nnamdi  Iyakaremye  Vedaste  Chehbouni  Abdelghani  Ongoma  Victor 《Natural Hazards》2022,113(2):1151-1176

Natural Hazards - The ongoing global warming has caused unprecedented changes in the climate system, leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of weather and climate extremes. This...  相似文献   

随机森林机器算法在江苏省小麦赤霉病病穗率预测中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

徐敏  徐经纬  谢志清  高苹  李亚春  缪璟秋 《气象学报》2020,78(1):143-153

基于2002—2018年江苏省13个市的小麦赤霉病病穗率资料与生育期观测资料、相应时段内的逐日气象数据,应用随机森林机器学习算法,分生育期、分区域定量评估影响病穗率的主要气象因子特征变量和贡献率,按不同起报时间建立预测模型并进行验证。结果表明,各生育期重要特征变量贡献率的排序为:抽穗扬花期＞拔节期＞越冬期。抽穗扬花期湿度、连续≥3 d的雨日和日照对赤霉病起主导作用,拔节期日照、降雨量、湿度和雨日与越冬期气温和降雪对赤霉病均具有前期影响,甄别出的重要特征变量排序结果符合赤霉病菌发育、释放、侵染和流行规律;基于随机森林算法建立的病穗率预测模型的精度与重要特征变量个数、赤霉病发生区域、M_try参数设定、生育期有关;最早可在3月初进行预测,预测时效近3个月,起报时间越接近乳熟期,输入的重要特征变量越多,则病穗率预测准确率越高,病穗率模拟值与实测值的波动趋势完全一致,对赤霉病“中等”和“偏重”等级模拟效果好,表明随机森林算法在赤霉病预测中有较高的可靠性和业务应用潜力。   相似文献   

广西霜日气候变化特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

徐圣璇  余锦华  覃卫坚  王帅 《气象研究与应用》2013,34(2):47-50

通过对1951-2012年广西90个气象站霜日分布及变化特征的分析得出:广西霜日具有北多南少与东多西少、而初霜日有北早南晚和终霜日有南早北晚的分布特征,广西霜日存在明显的12a、10a、2a周期震荡。  相似文献   

A Spatial Consistency Quality Control Method for Daily Surface Temperature Observations     

熊雄  唐红昇  张颖超  叶小岭 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2020,26(4):461-472

A new spatial consistency quality control method (SRF) based on the spatial regression test (SRT) and random forest (RF) was adapted to identify potential outliers in daily surface temperature observations in this article. For the new method, the SRT method was used to filter the data and the RF method was used to conduct regression. To evaluate the performance of the quality control method, the SRF, SRT and RF methods were applied to a surface temperature dataset with seeded errors from different regions of China from 2005 to 2014. Compared to SRT and RF, the results indicate that the SRF method outperforms the other two methods for the most cases. And the results of the comparison led to the recommendation that the SRF method improves the regression accuracy of traditional spatial consistency quality control methods and reduces the runtime of random forest through data refinement.  相似文献   

热带海水温度多时间尺度变化特征分析     

陈兵  黎璐  葛旭阳  姜有山  陈明诚 《气象科学》2020,40(4):475-484

利用高时间分辨率热带海洋浮标站点观测资料,分析热带区域海水温度多时间尺度变化特征,研究海水温度的日变化、季节变化和季节内变化。结果表明:热带海表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)具有不对称性的日变化特征。SST日较差与天气状况关系密切。有降水日的SST日平均值和幅度均低于无降水日,其不对称性具有区域性差异。在不同ENSO位相年份下的SST日平均值和振幅变化具有区域性,太平洋西部(Western Pacific,WP)的平均值和振幅差距较小,太平洋东部(Eastern Pacific,EP)和印度洋(Indian Ocean,IO)区域在El Niňo年的日平均值和振幅均大于La Niňa年。SST随季节变化具有区域性特征,WP区域SST的日平均温度和振幅在秋季最大,冬季最小;而EP和IO区域的日平均温度和振幅在春季最大,夏季最小。且SST日变化幅度随季节变化显著,主要受太阳短波辐射、降水和风速随季节变化的调制。此外,在季节内振荡时间尺度上,海水温度在200 m深度内随时间呈周期性变化,海水温度出现最大变率的中心位于100～150 m的深度范围内。不同区域由于温跃层深度不同,最大变率位置也有所差别。对海水温度变化特征分析可以为海—气耦合模式提供观测依据,以便准确地评估模式对海水温度的模拟效果。  相似文献   

海水养殖水温对冷空气的响应及水温预报   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

曹美兰  李仁忠  杨再强  何月  朱凯 《干旱气象》2013,(1):56-61

开展冷空气对海水养殖水温的影响及水温预测预报,可为水产养殖灾害监测预警提供科学依据。该文以东沙海水养殖场为试验基地,对2010～2011年整个冬季冷空气活动期间水温气温变化进行了对比分析,并对不同强度、伴随不同天气现象的冷空气影响下水温的变化情况进行讨论。结果表明:该冬季共有9次冷空气影响,水温变化趋势与气温相似,但变幅小于气温,而且有明显的滞后性;冷空气对水温有显著的影响,影响程度与冷空气强度、伴随的天气现象及水的深度有关,冷空气越强,水温下降幅度就越大;不同天气条件对水温的影响不一样,晴天时水温下降较小,阴天水温降幅增大,寒潮影响时水温大幅度下降,冷空气影响结束后1～2 d,水温降到最低值;采用逐步回归分析方法,建立了冬季养殖塘水下0.5 m和1 m的水温预报模式,经独立样本检验,准确率高,可以应用于业务服务。  相似文献   

持续拉伸型中尺度对流系统发生发展与江苏暴雨分析   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

张雪蓉  濮梅娟  李晓容  覃丹宇  张备 《气象科学》2013,33(5):561-569

利用自动气象站、卫星探测资料,NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料等,从环流特征,动力、热力和水汽条件等对发生在江苏地区的两次梅汛期大暴雨过程的中尺度对流云团的发生、发展进行了分析。结果表明:这两次中尺度对流云团中均存在持续伸长型的中尺度对流系统(PECS),大暴雨区与T_BB<-70 ℃区域有较好的对应关系,有利的环境场形成的高空辐散、低空辐合和强烈的上升运动是PECS发生发展的重要条件。PECS云团处于200 hPa高空急流入口区右侧、西南低空急流左侧(切变线南侧),呈西南—东北向线状排列,低层暖湿不稳定气流诱发中尺度云团的产生,气旋性涡度场对积云对流活动具有组织和增强作用。当正涡度向垂直方向发展时,附近产生强烈的垂直上升运动,对应着中尺度PECS云团的强烈发展。强烈的对流不稳定有利于中尺度对流系统的发展,也有利于触发暴雨产生。  相似文献   

Solar cycle distribution of strong solar proton events and the related solar-terrestrial phenomena   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Guiming Le  Xingxing Yang  Liuguang Ding  Yonghua Liu  Yangping Lu  Minhao Chen 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2014,352(2):403-408

We investigated the solar cycle distribution of strong solar proton events (SPEs, peak flux ≥1000 pfu) and the solar-terrestrial phenomena associated with the strong SPEs during solar cycles 21–23. The results show that 37 strong SPEs were registered over this period of time, where 20 strong SPEs were originated from the super active regions (SARs) and 28 strong SPEs were accompanied by the X-class flares. Most strong SPEs were not associated with the ground level enhancement (GLE) event. Most strong SPEs occurred in the descending phases of the solar cycles. The weaker the solar cycle, the higher the proportion of strong SPES occurred in the descending phase of the cycle. The number of the strong SPEs that occurred within a solar cycle is poorly associated with the solar cycle size. The intensity of the SPEs is highly dependent of the location of their source regions, with the super SPEs (≥20000 pfu) distributed around solar disk center. A super SPE was always accompanied by a fast shock driven by the associated coronal mass ejection and a great geomagnetic storm. The source location of strongest GLE event is distributed in the well-connected region. The SPEs associated with super GLE events (peak increase rate ≥100%) which have their peak flux much lower than 10000 pfu were not accompanied by an intense geomagnetic storm.  相似文献   

西南地区冬季旱涝特征及其与北极涛动关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孔祥伟  于乐江  刘新伟 《干旱区地理》2012,35(6):875-882

利用1951-2010年我国西南地区内32站月平均降水资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对西南地区冬季旱涝时空分布特征及其与北极涛动(AO)的关系进行了研究分析.结果表明:近60a西南地区冬季降水量和旱涝事件平均发生频次均呈东南向西北递减分布,其中滇、黔、桂交界处和四川南部为降水偏多事件多发区,而渝、滇西南、黔东部及四川盆地是干旱事件多发区,特旱事件的发生概率也较高,并有逐年增加的趋势;冬季旱涝以周期为12 a、8 a左右的低频振荡最为显著,近几年均处于负位相;冬季AO与西南地区同期降水呈显著的正相关,AO异常偏强(弱)时,则西南地区降水异常偏多(少).  相似文献